HYDERABAD: So long as India is ready to clock a GDP progress fee of 8% every year in actual Rupee phrases, it has the potential to emerge because the Sachin Tendulkar of the worldwide economic system with a $55 trillion economic system by 2047 when the nation turns 100, Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) govt director Prof KV Subramanian mentioned on Monday.
Subramanian, who was additionally the seventeenth chief financial advisor to the Indian govt, mentioned if India maintains an 8% actual progress fee, coupled with a 5% inflation fee, the nominal progress fee in Rupee phrases can be 13%.
Factoring in an estimated 1% depreciation within the Indian Rupee in opposition to the US Greenback, the nominal progress fee in Greenback phrases can be roughly 12%, he mentioned. Making use of the rule of 72, which states that the variety of years required to double a given quantity is the same as 72 divided by the expansion fee, India’s GDP would double each six years at a 12% progress fee, he mentioned on the unveiling of his ebook ‘India@100 Envisioning Tomorrow’s Financial Powerhouse’ on the Indian College of Enterprise (ISB) right here.
The previous CEA identified that ranging from a GDP of $3.25 trillion in 2023, India’s economic system would endure 4 doublings over the 24-year interval from 2023 to 2047, reaching $52 trillion by the point the nation celebrates the a centesimal anniversary of its independence.
Whereas admitting that this aim might sound audacious, he mentioned it was achievable by way of the facility of compounding and India’s historic progress fee of round 7% over the previous 30 years.
Driving house the facility of compounding, Prof Subramanian, who’s presently on depart from ISB, additionally pointed to Japan’s financial progress within the 25-year interval between 1970 and 1995 with it grew 25 occasions from $215 billion to over $5 trillion, and per capita GDP grew from $2,100 to just about $44,000.
Drawing an analogy with Sachin Tendulkar’s cricketing profession, he likened India’s financial potential to the legendary batsman’s early days when Sunil Gavaskar predicted his success. Nevertheless, he harassed that simply as Tendulkar needed to work onerous and overcome setbacks, the Indian govt must implement insurance policies and overcome challenges to extend the nation’s progress fee from 7% to eight%.
“It is bold however achievable if we double down and work onerous and overcome setbacks which can inevitably come throughout a 20-25 yr interval. There shall be tailwinds however there shall be doubtlessly headwinds as nicely. We could be the Sachin Tendulkar of the worldwide economic system,” he mentioned.
Subramanian, who was additionally the seventeenth chief financial advisor to the Indian govt, mentioned if India maintains an 8% actual progress fee, coupled with a 5% inflation fee, the nominal progress fee in Rupee phrases can be 13%.
Factoring in an estimated 1% depreciation within the Indian Rupee in opposition to the US Greenback, the nominal progress fee in Greenback phrases can be roughly 12%, he mentioned. Making use of the rule of 72, which states that the variety of years required to double a given quantity is the same as 72 divided by the expansion fee, India’s GDP would double each six years at a 12% progress fee, he mentioned on the unveiling of his ebook ‘India@100 Envisioning Tomorrow’s Financial Powerhouse’ on the Indian College of Enterprise (ISB) right here.
The previous CEA identified that ranging from a GDP of $3.25 trillion in 2023, India’s economic system would endure 4 doublings over the 24-year interval from 2023 to 2047, reaching $52 trillion by the point the nation celebrates the a centesimal anniversary of its independence.
Whereas admitting that this aim might sound audacious, he mentioned it was achievable by way of the facility of compounding and India’s historic progress fee of round 7% over the previous 30 years.
Driving house the facility of compounding, Prof Subramanian, who’s presently on depart from ISB, additionally pointed to Japan’s financial progress within the 25-year interval between 1970 and 1995 with it grew 25 occasions from $215 billion to over $5 trillion, and per capita GDP grew from $2,100 to just about $44,000.
Drawing an analogy with Sachin Tendulkar’s cricketing profession, he likened India’s financial potential to the legendary batsman’s early days when Sunil Gavaskar predicted his success. Nevertheless, he harassed that simply as Tendulkar needed to work onerous and overcome setbacks, the Indian govt must implement insurance policies and overcome challenges to extend the nation’s progress fee from 7% to eight%.
“It is bold however achievable if we double down and work onerous and overcome setbacks which can inevitably come throughout a 20-25 yr interval. There shall be tailwinds however there shall be doubtlessly headwinds as nicely. We could be the Sachin Tendulkar of the worldwide economic system,” he mentioned.
