WASHINGTON: An American historian dubbed the “Election Nostradamus” for getting 9 out of the final ten presidential elections right, says Kamala Harris would be the subsequent President of the US.
Prof Allan Lichtman predicts the end result of the US Presidential elections not on the idea of polls and surveys, however on “13 keys” he developed in 1981 together with his geophysicist pal Vladimir Keilis-Borok.They embrace metrics equivalent to incumbency, midterm good points, third get together candidates, short-term economic system, long-term economic system, social unrest, White Home scandal, incumbent and challenger charisma, international coverage failure and success.
His name for 2024: Kamala Harris is sweet on eight of the 13 metrics and subsequently has the keys to the White Home.
Most famously, Lichtman had predicted Donald Trump‘s sudden victory in 2016 (in opposition to all odds and ballot forecasts), though some critics say he had really predicted Trump would win the favored vote (Hillary Clinton gained practically 3 million extra votes). His solely failure got here in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would win in opposition to George Bush — and he was technically right there too contemplating Gore gained the favored vote and the electoral faculty vote was determined by the US Supreme Courtroom.
For the 2024 race, Lichtman says eight of his keys favor Kamala Harris, whereas three favor Trump. The keys that profit Trump embrace the get together that controls White Home gaining Home seats within the 2022 midterm elections; the sitting president or vice-president working for reelection; and Harris, in his view, missing charisma.
The remaining two keys, together with a international coverage failure or a international coverage success, might nonetheless flip in Trump’s favor earlier than the election, he says, however the eight that goes for Harris is sufficient to win her the White Home.
Most conventional polls proceed to point out Harris forward, however her lead is inside the margin of error with two months to go earlier than Election Day, though early voting in lots of states begins the week after the Presidential debate on September 10.
Either side are boasting of defections from reverse ranks: The Trump marketing campaign on Tuesday claimed assist from the Harris’ working mate Tim Walz’s estranged brother and different relations. On Wednesday, the Harris marketing campaign was happy by endorsement from former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney, who was one in every of senior GOP leaders in Congress earlier than she fell out with Trump. A hardcore conservative, she can be the daughter of former US vice-president Dick Cheney, who served beneath George Bush. She mentioned would vote for Harris due to the hazard Trump poses to the US.
Prof Allan Lichtman predicts the end result of the US Presidential elections not on the idea of polls and surveys, however on “13 keys” he developed in 1981 together with his geophysicist pal Vladimir Keilis-Borok.They embrace metrics equivalent to incumbency, midterm good points, third get together candidates, short-term economic system, long-term economic system, social unrest, White Home scandal, incumbent and challenger charisma, international coverage failure and success.
His name for 2024: Kamala Harris is sweet on eight of the 13 metrics and subsequently has the keys to the White Home.
Most famously, Lichtman had predicted Donald Trump‘s sudden victory in 2016 (in opposition to all odds and ballot forecasts), though some critics say he had really predicted Trump would win the favored vote (Hillary Clinton gained practically 3 million extra votes). His solely failure got here in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would win in opposition to George Bush — and he was technically right there too contemplating Gore gained the favored vote and the electoral faculty vote was determined by the US Supreme Courtroom.
For the 2024 race, Lichtman says eight of his keys favor Kamala Harris, whereas three favor Trump. The keys that profit Trump embrace the get together that controls White Home gaining Home seats within the 2022 midterm elections; the sitting president or vice-president working for reelection; and Harris, in his view, missing charisma.
The remaining two keys, together with a international coverage failure or a international coverage success, might nonetheless flip in Trump’s favor earlier than the election, he says, however the eight that goes for Harris is sufficient to win her the White Home.
Most conventional polls proceed to point out Harris forward, however her lead is inside the margin of error with two months to go earlier than Election Day, though early voting in lots of states begins the week after the Presidential debate on September 10.
Either side are boasting of defections from reverse ranks: The Trump marketing campaign on Tuesday claimed assist from the Harris’ working mate Tim Walz’s estranged brother and different relations. On Wednesday, the Harris marketing campaign was happy by endorsement from former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney, who was one in every of senior GOP leaders in Congress earlier than she fell out with Trump. A hardcore conservative, she can be the daughter of former US vice-president Dick Cheney, who served beneath George Bush. She mentioned would vote for Harris due to the hazard Trump poses to the US.
