Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as PM and departure from Bangladesh creates a plethora of uncertainties for India. Over one-and-a-half decade, she was New Delhi’s staunchest ally. India-Bangladesh ties throughout this era reached unprecedented ranges. From cross-border commerce and transit preparations to safety cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, bilateral relations skilled a golden interval.However Hasina’s ouster places all of these features beneath a cloud. The protests that pressured her from workplace additionally had an anti-India flavour since Hasina and New Delhi have been perceived to be joined on the hip. Given this context, these are 5 challenges India might face in its Bangladesh coverage within the close to future:
- Nature of interim govt:
Bangladesh military chief Waker-uz-Zaman has taken cost, and up to now he has made the suitable noises in proposing an interim govt with buy-in from all political events in Bangladesh. However the nature of this interim govt stays unclear as but. Neither is there a time-table for recent elections. This may hold New Delhi guessing. The interim govt in Dhaka will naturally have a huge impact on Bangladesh’s future political route, which in flip will influence ties with India. New Delhi wants to maneuver quick to construct bridges with the incoming regime. - Hasina dependence: New Delhi’s staunch backing of Hasina over the past decade meant that it had little to no engagement with Bangladeshi opposition teams. This places India at a drawback within the present situation. It will likely be difficult for New Delhi to blunt the present anti-India sentiment prevalent in Bangladesh. A lot diplomatic spadework could be wanted to regain misplaced floor.
- Way forward for transit: Transit and trans-shipment preparations with Bangladesh could also be revised by the incoming regime in Dhaka. India wants these for higher logistics provide to its Northeast. New Delhi, due to this fact, should work with the interim govt to make sure their continuity.
- Jamaat and Pakistan issue: It’s seemingly that Jamaat-e-Islami could have some affect over the interim govt in Dhaka. In spite of everything, Jamaat foot-soldiers have been reportedly a part of the protests towards Hasina. India’s equation with Jamaat has been uneasy, as was seen over the past BNP-Jamaat govt in Bangladesh. Plus, Jamaat might open the door for the return of Pakistan in Bangladeshi polity – one thing that Hasina had strongly stored out. That in flip will have an effect on India’s border safety with Bangladesh.
- China problem: Lastly, China has been desperately attempting to make inroads in Bangladesh. It clearly has deep pockets and may prop up the post-Hasina regime. China getting a powerful foothold in Bangladesh is a large downside for India. It might imply that India could be strategically surrounded by inimical, unfriendly or ambivalent neighbours – China and Pakistan within the west and north, a communist-led govt in Nepal, Taliban’s Afghanistan within the far west, an anti-India Maldives within the Indian Ocean, and at greatest an ambivalent regime in Bangladesh. That’s actually not excellent news for India’s strategic and safety calculus.
